Tuesday, January 14, 2020

A CAUTIONARY NOTE IN SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: "Coincidences do happen," or, "How Super Password gives pause to conspiracy theories."


"Super Password" is one of my favorite game shows ever. But beyond entertainment, there is a lesson to be gleaned from the 1985 Tournament of Champions about coincidental patterns--they do happen.

Being the fan that I am, I have seen video of the tournament a number of times (the women in the tournament are quite pleasant to look at). Doing so has shown me how innocent coincidences can start to look like conspiracies, a phenomenon which can overwhelm and deceive lesser minds. They will see it, let their imagination--and often paranoia--run with it, and develop a narrative which at the least far overreaches the reality.



Specifically, these coincidences and odd events involve Natalie Steele, the winner of the tournament (and taking home a then-amazing total of $106,000). Rewatching the final three episodes (the ones featuring Shelly Smith and Dick Gautier as the celebrities) of the tournament yields some odd things:

1. Steele wears red practically every day.
2. Steele herself notes a sorta-pattern with puzzle guesses of a suggestive/sexual tone.

3. The final episode:
- Gautier sings, "Lady In Red" as Steele comes on stage.
- She mentions Las Vegas in the introductory small talk, and the first puzzle is "Las Vegas."
- More than once, she wins a puzzle almost despite her own failings.
- Most notably, the final puzzle that wins the tournament for her is "Red," the color she had been wearing all that week. She even grabs her red dress as she makes that guess.
- "Red" is also used as a clue to a password in the previous, penultimate puzzle, and that use influences guesses in the final "Red" puzzle.
- Host Bert Convy makes reference to Shelly Smith saying before that there was "something in the air" about Steele in the finals, and lays out some of these odd elements (so no, it's not just me).

I leave out a few truly "reaching" elements, and probably missed a few more vaguely plausible--relatively speaking--ones.

In the over 30 years since the tournament, there has been not a whiff of scandal or corruption regarding either the show or the tournament. There is absolutely no reasonable--or even not-so-reasonable--doubt that this wonderful young lady won her victory by her skill, the help of her celebrity partners, and the normal time-and-chance luck associated with any endeavor (cf. Ecclesiastes 9:11). Yet, in the current social-media setting, the wrong person seeing this article WILL try to build a case against her and/or the show. They are wrong, but they illustrate this unfortunate trait of human nature, enhanced by technology and present societal conditions.

In politics, this phenomenon can happen with either end of the spectrum. In recent years, it has formed a vicious cycle with a mentality that rational actors have a perfect knowledge. It's impossible in some people's minds for someone to simply "F up" (encrypted because I'm in a reserved mood today). Be it a liberal reporter who forgot about an article from years before disproving their pet theory, or a conservative pundit who falls for a common Teabrainery misunderstanding, they see corruption. But they can be wrong.

This is not to deny that there are indeed nefarious collusions on the Left or genuine (and generally appropriate) allusions ("dog whistles") on the Right. Indeed, while dispelling some of the grand collisional theories about the Left, exposure of the anti-Trump "Resistance" demonstrates extensive collusions within this insurrection, as well as genuine dishonesty. Unfortunately, too many Patriots tie these together a bit too tightly, and end up harming their credibility, as well as the credibility of their side in the current Polarization.

They--we--need to learn that sometimes a F-up is just a F-up. There may be--and generally is--bias involved in such by the Left/NeverTrump camp--and indeed, in the current setting all contribute to their culpability in the current insurrection--but in objective fact there may not have been collusion or intent. In Military Intelligence, it is crucial to identify only ACTUAL connections and motives (and they do exist). The Ukraine Hoax is an example of Intelligence people completely failing in that regard--in some cases by malice, but perhaps a few in genuine stupidity. The pro-Trump side needs to avoid the same mistake, even as we slam to High Heaven their insurrectionist actions. As the U.S. Army Military Intelligence Creed states, "And above all, integrity, for in truth lies victory."

Below is a compilation of the Super Password tournament. The final three start around the 1:46:00 point. Please watch these, both to see what I described above, and for the entertainment value of one of the greatest game shows ever. (Oh, and the chicks are hot.)



Incomplete, playlist of the tournament here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL4ofkbA1vNMOEMdbbf3tGiJy9iBwSSp9g





(Edited for minor fixes and to add a point regarding the final tournament episode.)